Fiatapalooza! Chrysler's Five-Year Plan

After eight hours of details on how Chrysler Group CEO Sergio Marchionne and his team will save and grow the fresh-from-bankruptcy automaker, it's tough to assess where the Pentastar is headed. Once a few miles away from the Auburn Hills, Michigan, headquarters, this much was clear: after nine years of Daimler and two years of Cerberus ownership, what else does Chrysler have to lose?

If all goes to plan, and the U.S. market scratches its way up to a 14.5-million unit year in 2014 (Chrysler's estimate, more conservative than the 16.8-million year Marchionne says analysts are predicting), Chrysler will break even next year, 2010. It will have positive cashflow by 2011 and pay off U.S. ($5.8-billion drawn) and Canadian ($1.5 billion) loans by 2014. Marchionne believes Chrysler can spend $4.5-billion per year on product development and be profitable.

By 2014, and we're talking calendar years here, which takes us out to the 2015 model year, Fiat platforms will cover a full 56 percent of cars and trucks sold in North American Chrysler/Jeep/Dodge/Ram dealers (yes, Ram is now a separate brand). Chrysler-brand cars will be sold in European Lancia dealerships (there's simpatico - Lancia has been a kind of pre-Enclave Buick in Western Europe since the post-Stratos years). Jeep will add more diesel variants and will become a bigger player in foreign markets.

Chrysler eventually gets b- and c/d-platforms from Fiat. The Fiat c- and d-segment platforms are two variations of the same. Fiat gets d-segment platforms and larger from Chrysler, which means the FWD minivan platform and perhaps the RWD LX (Dodge Challenger/Charger/Chrysler 300) platform for larger Alfa Romeos and Lancias. There's life in the 300, yet.

Fiat will build 500s in North America (probably Mexico), with Chrysler-tweaked interior and exterior trim and bumper offsets, beginning in late '10 with a January '11 launch in select Chrysler/Jeep/Dodge/Ram dealerships. A 500 cabrio will come a year later, and the 500 Abarth a year after that ('13, for those of you keeping score). Alfa Romeo will arrive before 2014. Marchionne expects to sell about 70,000 Alfas per year here, but that doesn't have anything to do with Fiat's plan for Chrysler, which is this:

CALENDAR YEAR 2010:

JEEP

* 2011 Wranglergets an all-new interior.

* Compass and Patriotget all-new sheetmetal creating greater delineation between the two, and new, higher-quality interiors.

* Commander's last year,followed by cryptic timeline words, "international allocation" in the Chrysler playbook.

* All-new Grand Cherokee, as previewed at the '09 New York International Auto Show. First model to get Chrysler/Mercedes/Hyundai joint-development V-6 engine family, now separated from Merc and Hyundai, and renamed (again) Pentastar V-6. In 3.6- and later 3.3-liter variants.

RAM

* New Heavy Dutypickup and chassis cab, but you knew that already.

DODGE

* 2011 Avengergets major refresh, new interior and new sheetmetal. Could be at least as significant as the 2010 Ford Fusion's update. Pentastar V-6 and new 4-cylinder engine family added.

* Journeygets new interior, engines.

*2011 Grand Caravangets new interior, sheetmetal, engines including a major fuel economy improvement (see Avenger).

*2011 Charger,second-generation LX, launches as planned. Includes all-new sheetmetal, and major "expensive" redo of existing RWD platform.

*2011 Durango replacement launches.Based on same platform as Jeep Grand Cherokee, but with optional third-row seat.

* Last 500 Vipers are built,with special package, colors, etc. Coupe and convertible. Spec Miata-like one-marque race series likely.

CHRYSLER

* 2011 Sebringgets same treatment as Dodge Avenger, with new sheetmetal, interior and engine families.

*2011 Chrysler 300/300Claunch as planned. Like Charger (and like Ford's latest Taurus), redo is more extensive than originally planned.

* PT Cruiser dies.

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CALENDAR YEAR 2011:

JEEP

* 70th anniversary Wranglerspecial edition.

RAM

* A midsize, unibody truckis "under consideration" to replace the Dakota. Think Honda Ridgeline. May be built on a Fiat platform.

DODGE

* Nitro gets majorredo.

* Challengergets refresh/facelift.

CALENDAR YEAR 2012:

RAM

* Light duty (1500), heavy dutyand chassis cab pickups get refresh/facelift.

* Fiat-based small commercialvan launches.

* Fiat-based large commercialvan launches.

DODGE

* All-new 2013 compact sedanon Fiat platform replaces Caliber.

* All-new Viper launches.We believe its OHV engine will share its basic block with DOHC Ferrari engines.

CHRYSLER

* All-new 2013 compact sedanmarketed as upmarket from Dodge's all-new Fiat-based compact sedan.

CALENDAR YEAR 2013:

JEEP

* All-new, smaller-than-Compassb-segment crossover on Fiat platform.

* All-new c-segment crossoveron Fiat platform converges Compass and Patriot.

* All-new Libertyon Fiat platform.

DODGE

* New 2014 b-segment compactbased on the Hornet concept and built on a Fiat platform, finally debuts.

* All-new 2014 Avengerreplacement on Fiat platform.

CHRYSLER

* All-new b-segment compacton a Fiat platform. How does it differ from the Dodge Hornet? Think Alfa MiTO versus Fiat Punto.

* All-new 2014 Fiat-based midsizereplaces Sebring sedan.

* All-new crossoverbased on the above Fiat-based Sebring sedan replacement.

CALENDAR YEAR 2014:

DODGE

*New d-platform Grand Caravanis on a Chrysler platform.

CHRYSLER

*New MY15 Town & Country,on a Chrysler platform, complements '15 Grand Caravan.

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